2026年9月21日

The indomitable Stephen Hawking

Andrew Robinson

The physicist’s first authorized biography paints an incisive portrait of the audacious scientist

Climate unrest comes to a fictionalized France

Priya Dames

Insiders and dissidents pursue different paths to environmental justice in near-future Paris

Ancient DNA unveils distinctive ancestries in the Bronze and Iron Ages of East Tianshan

Chao Ning, Ke Wang, Tianyi Wang, Jian Ma, Xue Zhao, Tongyuan Xi, Yongqiang Wang, Peng Cao, Shizhu Gao, Xiaotian Feng, Wanglin Hu, Xiaolin Wang,, Fan Zhang, Meng Ren, Xiyan Wu, Feng Liu, Xue Zhang, Jiangsong Zhu, Chunxiang Li, Qingyan Dai, Zhihao Dang, Ruowei Yang, Yunpeng Tang, Wanjing Ping, Vikas Kumar, Wenying Li, Bo Wang, Jianxin Wang, Dong Wei, Zhongzhi Nie, E. Andrew Bennett, Yinqiu Cui, Qiaomei Fu

The East Tianshan Mountains occupy a key corridor between Central and East Asia, but their population history remains poorly understood. Here we report genome-wide data from 135 ancient individuals from 11 archaeological sites. We identify a previously unrecognized Bronze Age admixture between populations related to Yellow River millet farmers and steppe pastoralists associated with the Chemurchek culture. In contrast, we find little genetic contribution from contemporaneous middle-to-late Bronze Age steppe pastoralists, despite their eastward expansion across the Eurasian Steppe. By the Iron Age, regional populations had become more heterogeneous, incorporating additional eastern and steppe-related sources while retaining variable contributions from Early Bronze Age groups. These results…

Nuclear tests at Mt. Mantap have reactivated intraplate faults

Xingli Fan, Kwang-Hee Kim, Su Young Kang, Lanbo Liu, Jie Song, Yujin Sohn, Hyeong-Tae Jou, Qi-Fu Chen, Le Li, Lian-Feng Zhao, Yuan Wang, Tianyao Hao

Underground nuclear explosions typically produce short-lived seismic sequences that decay rapidly after testing ceases. By contrast, seismicity near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site at Mt. Mantap in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has persisted and intensified for years after the final large-yield explosion in 2017, evolving from diffuse activity to spatially organized distribution along fault-controlled structures. Analysis of 17 years of continuous waveform data reveals a progressive increase in seismicity and delayed reactivation of shallow faults. Earthquakes cluster beneath asymmetric topography, indicating progressive stress redistribution within a critically stressed crustal volume. These observations challenge conventional expectations, showing that under specific geolog…

Multi-organelle signatures map cell-state diversity and metabolic adaptation in tissues

Raghabendra Adhikari, Alexander Hillsley, Alana Dowdell Johnson, Shihong Max Gao, Isabel Espinosa-Medina, Jan Funke, Daniel Feliciano

Cell-state diversity drives tissue adaptability, repair, and disease resilience, but capturing this complexity is a challenge. Current approaches rely on transcriptional profiling and overlook organelle structure, a key indicator of metabolism and stress. We developed spatial Organellomics (sOrganellomics), an imaging workflow that integrates automated segmentation with machine learning to classify and spatially map cell states from multi-organelle signatures. In liver and pancreas, these signatures distinguished broad cellular classes. In liver, sOrganellomics revealed that zonal position did not fully explain organelle-defined hepatocyte categories. Instead, hepatocytes formed intermixed communities within canonical zones, supporting a refined subzonal diversity model. Nutritional stres…

Transcriptome-based classification in mice with ASD-risk mutations

Junyeop Daniel Roh, Yukyung Jun, Heesu Jeon, Junyoung Kim, Yunho Yi, Minji Kim, Heejin Cho, Yusang Oh, Heera Moon, Jinkyeong Kim, Seongbin Kim, Jeseung Ryu, Muwon Kang, Jisoo Kim, Yeonghyeon Kim, Yewon Jung, Taesun Yoo, Hyoseon Oh, Hyosang Kim, Chunmei Jin, Yeji Yang, Gahyeon Choi, Sunjoo Ahn, Jin Young Kim, Hyojin Kang, Mihyun Bae, Eunjoon Kim

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition with a strong genetic component. Large-scale human genetic studies have identified >1200 ASD-risk genes. We report a sex-balanced atlas of 1008 prefrontal RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) profiles from 17 mouse lines carrying ASD-risk mutations. Our analysis identified two opposing transcriptomic states. The two groups differed in sex bias, regional specificity, developmental stability, cell type remodeling, and responses to fluoxetine and lithium. Single-nucleus RNA-seq revealed broader cell type remodeling in group 1 than in group 2, and cell type–specific modules showed reciprocal associations that mirrored bulk transcriptomic signatures. The framework classifies independent mouse lines and identifies subgroups with conserved syn…

Fast, continuous, and coherent atom reloading in a neutral-atom qubit array

Yiyi Li, Yicheng Bao, Michael Peper, Chenyuan Li, Jeff D. Thompson

Neutral-atom quantum processors are a promising platform for scalable quantum computing. An obstacle to implementing deep quantum circuits is managing atom loss. Current approaches require at least an order of magnitude longer time than gate and measurement operations to replace lost atoms. In this work, we demonstrate fast, continuous atom reloading that leverages the metastable 171 Yb qubit. A continuously loaded reservoir near the computation zone enables on-demand atom extraction with tweezers up to 500 times per second. New, stochastically filled qubit arrays can be initialized 30 times per second when including single-atom preparation, nondestructive imaging, and initialization. Existing qubits in the metastable state are undisturbed by the reloading process. This work establishes a…

Atmospheric methane lifetime during the Last Glacial Maximum was reduced owing to dust-mediated chlorine chemistry

Daphne Meidan, Carlos A. Cuevas, Julián Villamayor, Rafael P. Fernandez, Nicolás J. Cosentino, Samuel Albani, Natalie M. Mahowald, Andrea Spolaor, Juan Pablo Corella, Michaela Mühl, Jennifer Campos Ayala, Markus Grimmer, Jochen Schmitt, Hubertus Fischer, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez

Atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) plays a central role in Earth’s climate, yet the drivers of its decline during the high-dust conditions of glacial periods, such as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), remain uncertain. Previous explanations imply source-driven changes, assuming an atmospheric lifetime comparable to that of present day. Recent work shows that interactions between mineral dust and sea salt aerosols produce CH 4 -removing chlorine radicals. In this work, we show that during the LGM, CH 4 lifetime shortened to 7.8 years, 20% lower than that of present day. Chlorine contributed ~15% of global CH 4 loss, fourfold that of present day. Our results reproduce ice core CH 4 isotopic evidence, demonstrating that stronger-than-assumed atmospheric sinks can explain CH 4 variability without invo…

Splenic regulation of systemic platelet activation state

Lisa Laun, Alexander Leunig, Felix Zhang, Sezer Akgöl, Dario Rossaro, Matthias P. Fabritius, Afra Anjum, Lennart Kreutz, Nathalie Mackert, Gabriel H.M. Araujo, Shaan Mahameed, Craig Balmforth, Marie-Louise Hoffknecht, Magdalena Mader, Konstantin Hoffmann, Justus Reittinger, Johanna Knechtel, Nellie M. Kwabla, Maité Mulkers, Michael Schmid, Jean Solarz, Hannah Niederdorfer, Raphael Escaig, Robin Dewender, Heiko Schulz, Frederick Klauschen, Konstantin Stark, Florian Gaertner, David E. Newby, Bernhard Nieswandt, Filip K. Swirski, Zoltan Nagy, Alexandra Mazharian, Rainer Kaiser, Yotis A. Senis, Steffen Massberg, Leo Nicolai

Platelets are essential to prevent blood loss and to orchestrate inflammation. Thrombotic complications of vascular disease and hyperresponsive platelets are associated with adverse outcomes, yet physiological mechanisms counteracting systemic platelet activation are poorly defined. In mice, we found that the spleen filters activated platelets in thrombotic and inflammatory conditions, limiting pathology by maintaining platelet quiescence. Glycoprotein VI–dependent activation of platelets initiated by extracellular matrix components in the splenic red pulp was counterbalanced by G6b-B–immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motif signaling triggered by perlecan in quiescent platelets, allowing them to recirculate. By contrast, threshold activation signals in preactivated platelets could…

A noncontiguous code for RNA-guided DNA recognition at the origin of CRISPR-Cas

Peter H. Yoon, Kenneth J. Loi, Zeyuan Terry Zhang, Trevor A. Docter, Santiago C. Lopez, Conner J. Langeberg, Muhammad Moez Ur-Rehman, Kamakshi Vohra, Zehan Zhou, Isabel Esain-Garcia, Marena I. Trinidad, Honglue Shi, Ron Boger, Peter Y. Wang, Benjamin A. Adler, Stephen G. Brohawn, Jennifer A. Doudna

CRISPR-Cas provides RNA-mediated adaptive immunity, but how its first RNA-guided effector arose is unclear. In this study, we report the discovery of Viral Interference Programmable Repeat (VIPR) systems consisting of a Vipr protein ancestral to the earliest CRISPR-Cas effectors and VIPR RNAs (vrRNAs) comprising alternating GGY/NN motifs. Unlike canonical guide RNAs that pair with target nucleic acids through contiguous complementarity, vrRNAs recognize double-stranded DNA through a noncontiguous code in which the variable NN dinucleotides collectively specify a gapped target sequence. Natural vrRNA targets suggest that VIPR systems act against competing phages, and we demonstrate programmable phage defense by redirecting the complex for transcriptional repression. These results suggest t…

VIPR RNA-guided DNA recognition by noncontiguous geometric triplex formation

Peter H. Yoon, Trevor A. Docter, Zeyuan Terry Zhang, Kenneth Loi, Santiago C. Lopez, Luis E. Valentin-Alvarado, Owen T. Tuck, Stephen G. Brohawn, Jennifer A. Doudna

Viral interference programmable repeat (VIPR) systems use a noncontiguous code for RNA-guided transcriptional silencing. How the Vipr protein and a VIPR RNA (vrRNA) comprising alternating GGY and NN segments achieve precise DNA targeting is unknown. Here, we present 21 cryo–electron microscopy structures that help explain the mechanism of target engagement. Vipr protomers oligomerize along the vrRNA to form a right-handed helical filament, sequestering each GGY motif and positioning the adjacent NN bases for target base pairing. DNA binding, in which every third nucleotide is skipped, results in a gapped vrRNA-DNA hybrid helix that encircles the nontarget DNA strand to form a geometric triplex. These findings suggest that triplex-mediated target-strand handoff could enable noncontiguous a…

Extreme loss suppression in an ultracold molecular gas with widely tunable dipolar interactions

Weijun Yuan, Siwei Zhang, Niccolò Bigagli, Haneul Kwak, Claire Warner, Tijs Karman, Ian Stevenson, Sebastian Will

Ultracold dipolar molecules hold great promise for the creation of exotic quantum states of matter, but the realization of long-lived molecular bulk samples with strong dipole-dipole interactions has remained challenging. In this work, we realized a collisionally stable gas of ultracold ground state molecules with a lifetime of several seconds. Utilizing double-microwave dressing, we achieved an extreme suppression of inelastic two- and three-body losses by factors of more than 10,000 and 1000, respectively. We found that losses remained suppressed across a wide range of dipole-dipole interactions, allowing the continuous tuning of the dipolar length from −21,000 to 12,000 a 0 , where a 0 is the Bohr radius. Combined with the recent realization of Bose-Einstein condensation of dipolar mol…

Quantum jumps of sound

Takuma Makihara, Erik Szakiel, Matthew P. Maksymowych, Oliver A. Hitchcock, Kaveh Pezeshki, Rachel G. Gruenke-Freudenstein, Mihir Pendharkar, Shannon P. Harvey, David I. Schuster, Amir H. Safavi-Naeini

Quantum mechanics predicts that a vibrating object’s energy comes in discrete packets, yet no measurement of its position reveals this discreteness. Resolving individual energy levels requires a qualitatively different measurement, one coupling to the resonator’s energy rather than its displacement. We use a superconducting qubit dispersively coupled to a nanomechanical resonator to perform repeated quantum nondemolition measurements of the phonon number. An aligned transfer-print technique integrating the qubit and resonator yields a mechanical lifetime of T 1 = 2.1 milliseconds and a dispersive shift of 2 χ / 2 π = 328 kilohertz per phonon. We heralded single-phonon states with 85% fidelity and observed quantum jumps between the resonator’s first excited state and ground state. These di…

An expert-level generalist AI for abdominal CT diagnosis

Qi Zhang, Jianpeng Zhang, Weiwei Cao, Zilin Lu, Wanxing Chang, Haonan Ding, Cao Chen, Zhi Li, Xing Xue, Sinuo Wang, Shaoteng Zhang, Yutong Xie, Yong Xia, Qi Wu, Zhongyi Shui, Xi Li, Zhilin Zheng, Yanjie Zhou, Tony C.W. Mok, Yingda Xia, Hongkan Wang, Xianghua Ye, Tao Ma, Jie Peng, Xiaoguang Wang, Jian Ding, Yuming Gao, Huazhen Ye, Yiping Liu, Dongjie Chen, Zhaomin Ni, Jianwen Ning, Wei Zhang, Jian Liu, Chaohui Yu, Shenghong Ju, Jianfeng Zhang, Wenbo Xiao, Ling Zhang, Tingbo Liang

Artificial intelligence (AI) in radiology aspires to deliver expert-level diagnosis across diverse clinical tasks, yet existing supervised strategies remain limited in scope. We developed RADAR, a generalist vision-language model trained on more than 400,000 contrast-enhanced abdominal computed tomography (CT) examinations and 15 million anatomy-wise image-text pairs, learning directly from clinical reports without manual annotation. Throughout internal and external evaluations across multiple centers and varied clinical scenarios, RADAR achieved high diagnostic performance and robust generalization for 18 anatomical structures and 146 imaging findings. In a reader study, RADAR assistance increased the diagnostic sensitivity of 26 radiologists by ~10%. RADAR offers a scalable, versatile,…

Disorder-promoted stability

Arthur N. Montanari, Pietro Zanin, Adilson E. Motter

Previous studies of network dynamics have suggested that heterogeneity among nodes inhibits stability, which is at odds with the ubiquity of inherently heterogeneous natural and engineered systems. Here, we show that this conclusion arises from model reductions introduced for mathematical tractability and breaks down when nodal dynamics are higher-dimensional, yielding non-Hermitian Jacobians. In such systems, including neural, power-grid, and material networks, nodal heterogeneity can instead enhance stability, even when parameters are randomly disordered. Non-Hermiticity also underlies the stabilizing effects of network heterogeneity, which can arise even in one-dimensional nodal dynamics through nonreciprocal interactions, as shown for ecological networks. Our framework reveals disorde…

Cognitive resilience helps to predict Alzheimer’s dementia

Briefing Chat: Evidence mounts for hidden chambers beyond Tutankhamun's tomb

Elizabeth Gibney

Europe pushes for space independence amid geopolitical rifts

Jonathan O’Callaghan

How research funding took me out of the lab and into leadership

Anna Sandak

First for RNA therapy: man with rare motor-neuron disease improves after treatment

Rachel Fieldhouse

How to make a brain: new experiments challenge existing picture

Lynne Peeples

AI cracked the Navier–Stokes challenge. What does that mean for physics?

Nicola Jones

Chinese companies doubled down on science after US tech restrictions

Xiaoying You

Author Correction: Genomic deletion of malic enzyme 2 confers collateral lethality in pancreatic cancer

Ronald A. DePinho

Mercury is shrinking with age — faster than thought

Schoolhouse meals serve up an income bump

How fast are you ageing? Ask AI

Heidi Ledford

Exclusive: New evidence for hidden chambers beyond Tutankhamun’s tomb

Jo Marchant

Take a risk or play it safe? Neuronal tug-of-war helps the brain decide

Miryam Naddaf

How a team of AIs discovered a promising lung-cancer drug

Ewen Callaway

Genetically engineered crops increase climate resilience of US fields

New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates

Thomas Hertel

Marine carbon removal at a crossroads

Finn Ross

Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration

Jacob Schewe

Abstract Climate extremes are increasingly disrupting livelihoods and shaping patterns of human mobility. Their longer-term and compounding relationships with migration remain understudied, particularly at the subnational scale. In this study, by analysing global subnational net migration data, we show that associations between climate extremes and migration vary by hazard type, timing, consecutive events, income level and pre-existing migration context. Floods are associated with decreased net migration across contexts, with effects lasting several years and appearing stronger in lower-income areas. Droughts, by contrast, show associations with net migration primarily in higher-income settings, with effects generally short-term. Tropical cyclones correspond to decreased net migration pri…

Divergence between physical and emotional heat resilience in Chinese cities

Zhiqiang Wu

Where global warming meets urban development

Andrew Sudmant

Greening masks stability loss in drylands

William K. Smith

Physiological flexibility in changing climates

John S. Terblanche

Towards global nutrient justice via a circular bionutrient economy

Johannes Lehmann

Drivers, trends and impacts of nitrogen deposition in China

Fusuo Zhang

Stratigraphic rationale for rejecting the Anthropocene epoch proposal

Adele Bertini

Time matters in the case against the Anthropocene epoch

Robert C. Walter

The Anthropocene debate

Future directions for Anthropocene research and its applications

Michinobu Kuwae

Defining the Anthropocene using precise geological evidence

Catherine Jeandel

Reply to ‘The challenge of defining effectively no snow’

Alan M. Rhoades

Experimental constraints on a long-lived magma layer at the Martian core–mantle boundary

Daniele Antonangeli

Abstract Geophysical observations from the InSight mission suggest anomalously low seismic velocities near the Martian core–mantle boundary, possibly indicating a molten silicate layer. Such a layer would have major implications for the thermal and chemical evolution of Mars, but its origin remains poorly constrained because experimental data on iron-rich Martian melts at deep-mantle conditions remain scarce. Here we use in situ ultrasonic interferometry combined with X-ray imaging and diffraction to determine the melting phase relations, ultrasonic response and chemical compositions of co-existing melts and solids under conditions relevant to the Martian core–mantle boundary. Our experiments constrain a Martian mantle solidus about 100 K lower than previous estimates. We show that incipi…

Earth–Moon and Solar System history recorded in Mesoproterozoic Grand Canyon strata

Richard E. Zeebe

Rapid submarine caldera collapse during the 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano (Tonga)

T. Kula

Multilayer soil moisture deficit amplifies drought impacts on global ecosystems

Martian Hadley circulation divides the atmosphere and connects the poles

A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic–European jet during winter

Patrick Kallabis

Abstract The Atlantic–European jet stream is a key driver of weather extremes in Europe, yet its recent variability and trends remain poorly understood. Here we investigate daily changes in jet strength, tilt and latitudinal extent from 1725 to 2100 using pressure data from four European stations alongside climate model simulations. These indices explain about 40% of day-to-day temperature variability in Western Europe year-round. Weather extremes—including heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation and windstorms—are closely linked to the jet stream, and the indices also capture signals of sudden stratospheric warmings and major solar storms. Since the pre-industrial period, the jet has strengthened by 0.13 standard deviations and shifted poleward during the cold season. Future project…

Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness

Valerie A. Locher

Abstract Understanding the controls on seismogenic behaviour at the plate interface in subduction zones is essential to assessing the hazard they pose. The interface topography, or roughness, is widely thought to be an important factor, yet how roughness influences earthquake magnitude is still debated. This debate persists because, generally, studies are limited to individual subduction margins, proxies for roughness are used rather than direct measurements and historical earthquake records are short. Here we show by analysing data from 15 subduction zones globally that there is no relationship between any interface roughness parameter we derive from observations and a proxy for maximum earthquake magnitude. Specifically, for each margin, we use seismic reflection profiles of the plate b…

Publisher Correction: Hadley circulation drives material isolation and pole-to-pole teleconnection on Mars

Siteng Fan

Two-dimensional materials for advanced back-end-of-line and wafer backside technologies

Han Wang

Monolithic 3D integration of atomic-layer-deposited oxide semiconductors on 200-mm silicon wafers

Peide D. Ye

Stretchable quantum dot displays achieve high definition

Feng Wang

High-resolution intrinsically stretchable quantum-dot displays through thermally assisted intaglio transfer printing

Moon Kee Choi

Single-gate, multipartite entanglement on a room-temperature quantum register

Lee C. Bassett

Abstract Multipartite entanglement is an essential aspect of quantum systems, needed to execute quantum algorithms, implement error correction and achieve quantum-enhanced sensing. In solid-state quantum registers such as nitrogen-vacancy centres in diamond, entangled states are typically created using sequential, pairwise gates between the central electron and individual nuclear qubits. This sequential approach is slow and suffers from crosstalk errors. Here we demonstrate a parallelized multi-qubit entangling gate to generate a four-qubit Greenberger–Horne–Zeilinger state using a room-temperature nitrogen-vacancy centre in only 14.8 μs—ten times faster than that using sequences of two-qubit gates and close to the fundamental limit set by the hyperfine coupling frequencies. Parallel thre…

Demonstration of on-chip all-optical switching of magnetization in integrated photonics

Bert Koopmans

Author Correction: Half-wave nanolasers and intracellular plasmonic lasing particles

Seok-Hyun Yun

Author Correction: Nanopore-enabled time-resolved monitoring of catecholamine-related phenylalanine metabolism

Hai-Chen Wu

Boosting water evaporation with clever surface design

Swee Ching Tan

Accelerating water desorption at heterostructure interfaces for high-rate solar evaporation

Dewei Chu

Minimizing climate change adaptation trade-offs in African rangelands

Morena Mills

Abstract Climate change is intensifying precipitation variability in southern African rangelands, challenging existing systems of pastoral management. Simultaneously, developments in weather forecast accuracy and access may enable pastoralists to effectively adapt to these conditions. Here we use a spatial agent-based model to study the benefits of weather forecasting for adaptive rangeland management with and without concurrent risk-smoothing interventions that buffer livestock losses during poor rainfall years. Given empirical and projected conditions across seven southern African countries, we show that precipitation variability can reduce average economic well-being and worsen inequality among pastoralists; that, when paired with the adaptive use of weather forecasting, risk-smoothing…

Discovering catastrophic weather risks

Luke Kemp

Higher odds of produced-water-like chemistry in groundwater vulnerable to shale gas spills

James E. Saiers

Abstract Unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD), the extraction of hydrocarbons from shale and other low-permeability formations through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, has bolstered the USA’s domestic energy production and economy. These benefits have been accompanied by public concerns about the industry’s impacts on drinking-water resources, the environment and human health. Here we explore the association between observed groundwater chemistry and documented surface spills from UOGD in the northern Appalachian Basin. Using published data from over 16,000 groundwater samples and high-resolution, physically based groundwater flow and transport modelling, we find that areas with high hydrologic vulnerability to surface spills exhibit a threefold increase in the odds…

Emissions and system-level decarbonization pathways for global petrochemical production

Jonathan M. Cullen

Abstract The petrochemical industry is responsible for 13% of global industrial and 3.5% of total greenhouse gas emissions, yet a globally consistent facility-level emissions inventory is lacking. Here we present a bottom-up assessment of historical, current and prospective emissions from 37,379 production facilities, covering 81 chemicals and 2,043 manufacturing processes. We estimate that petrochemical production emitted 2.0 ± 0.8 GtCO 2 e in 2023 and this could increase to 3.0 ± 1.2 GtCO 2 e by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. Emissions are highly concentrated, with 53% of 2023 emissions arising from 10% of facilities. Among primary chemicals, ethylene and ammonia were the largest emitters, at 290 ± 50 and 250 ± 50 MtCO 2 e, respectively, in 2023. Our scenario analysis indicate…

Global analysis of nitrogen inputs from irrigation water to cropland

K. Butterbach-Bahl

3D-printed living materials for anammox–denitrification coupling in wastewater treatment

Yingxin Zhao

When ultrabroadband absorption meets solar evaporation

Enquan Jin

Covalent organic frameworks with ultra-broadband absorption for efficient solar-driven water evaporation

Shaojun Guo

To fix ageing water infrastructure, we must plan for an ageing population

Nazanin Tajik

Fifty years of research have deepened uncertainties in global irrigation water withdrawals

Lieke A. Melsen

Abstract For five decades, refining models and datasets has been regarded as central to reducing uncertainty in global irrigation water withdrawal estimates. However, whether these efforts have succeeded remains unclear. Here we compile 1,624 global estimates from 65 studies published between 1974 and 2025 and evaluate them across 360 analytical pathways, spanning a comprehensive range of plausible statistical designs. Our results indicate that uncertainty in global irrigation water withdrawals has not declined: only 17% of pathways show any reduction over time, falling to 10% once projections to 2100 are excluded. The most common outcome is an increase in uncertainty (40% of pathways), followed by an unstable trend (34%). Progress may therefore require the field to renounce the goal of r…

Advancing aquatic ecological risk assessment through AI-driven prediction of chemical exposure and toxicity in freshwater and marine fish

Xuehua Li

A global classification of hydrologic functional diversity in gauged and ungauged catchments

Jeffrey J. McDonnell

Accessing the oceanic uranium reserve

Costas Tsouris

Localized potential wells enabling directional electron transport boost photocatalytic uranium extraction from natural seawater

Shaojun Guo